COVID-19: key developments for Thursday, May 14, 2020

The world is currently grappling with over 4.5 million confirmed cases of the virus, with numbers increasing steadily by approximately 600,000 per month. The United States leads with over 1.45 million cases and has experienced over 86,000 fatalities. While daily death rates in the U.S. have shown a downward trend recently, the situation remains precarious. Here's an insightful visual and explanation of the current state in America: [Embedded Visual] > "Nationwide, excluding the New York area which has seen consistent drops in new cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities for weeks, the nation as a whole had been witnessing a steady rise. However, over the past two weeks, we've started to see a decline. The national epidemic is slowing down, with the doubling time now at 45 days." — Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) Our food distribution networks are severely strained. Despite ample production, there's no efficient way to get food to those in need across the country. The monopolistic and centralized nature of these systems is a major contributor to the issue. This centralization has created supply chains riddled with significant weak points. The closure of so many family-operated farms has left us with fewer resources to adapt flexibly to shortages. Reports suggest that the White House's rapid tests are alarmingly unreliable: [Embedded Tweet] > "Rapid coronavirus test used by White House misses nearly half of positive cases: study" — The Hill (@thehill) As we've noted before, it's plausible that SARS-CoV-2 originated from a lab, though not necessarily through intentional engineering or release. Many labs house samples of zoonotic viruses. It might also have jumped from animals to humans without laboratory intervention. Accusing the Wuhan lab, which has faced much criticism, could also implicate the U.S., given reports of its support for similar research in that facility. At this stage, there are far more questions than answers. Both dogs and cats can contract this virus, with cats particularly shedding large amounts of it. While we're unsure if humans can catch the disease from pets, we do know cats shed live virus. As mentioned earlier, caution around animals is advised, especially if you've tested positive. Consider quarantining yourself from your pets when sick, and limit your pet's interactions with other neighborhood animals. Delta Airlines has decided to retire its 777 fleet due to the ongoing crisis: [Embedded Tweet] > "BREAK: Delta Air Lines is retiring its 777 fleet due to the coronavirus crisis." — Edward Russell (@ByERussell) Beyond the current pandemic, normalcy bias can cloud our judgment on future events. What other surprises lie ahead? Countries worldwide are turning to large-scale sewage testing as a tool to monitor outbreaks. Monitoring wastewater can reveal new regional virus surges, and the concentration of viral particles can provide insights into larger outbreaks that might not be immediately apparent through testing alone. Hospitalized COVID-19 patients are experiencing extraordinarily high rates of kidney injury. The virus can directly attack the parenchyma of the kidney. Kidney issues can also arise from shock, muscle breakdown during ventilation, and drug metabolism challenges for already stressed kidneys. While some acute kidney injuries can heal, they often result in reduced baseline function. Severe damage can necessitate dialysis or even a transplant. Crowds at beaches are linked to rising case numbers weeks later. Coincidence? Not really: [Embedded Tweet] > "@CAgovernor @newportbeachgov Record number of new COVID-19 cases in OC. Could be tied to the large beach gatherings 2 1/2 weeks ago. Definitely moving in the wrong direction." — Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) When comparing current total deaths to those from the same period last year, it becomes clear we're undercounting COVID-19 fatalities: [Embedded Tweet] > "In Opinion@NickKristof writes, 'These numbers are uncertain, but the implication is that somewhere around 25,000 more Americans died as a result of the pandemic than are recorded in the death tallies.'" — The New York Times (@nytimes) This real-time update reflects the evolving nature of the global health crisis, highlighting both the challenges and potential solutions we face moving forward.

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